This week, I was contacted by a journalist requesting my comments regarding a response to the following tweet by @tracyalloway, the managing editor at Bloomberg Markets: My response was the following: The reporter sought me out to understand the purpose of my comment. The question of whether or not I was responsible for the post … More Ethereum Bubble
Model remains in TLT and “Risk Off” for the 5th week in a row. Needless to say, the past two weeks have been difficult, pulling models down from +17.46% & +17.36% to +13.04% & +13.11% YTD. They are still beating the S&P 500 handily (+8.32%), but now trailing the Nasdaq (+14.3%) and Nasdaq 100 (+16.3%). … More Absolute Return Model – 7/9/17
This was the question posed by Jesse Livermore (@Jesse_Livermore, philosophicaleconomics.com) in a poll he posted on @Twitter last night. At the time of this writing, 15% of respondents thought it could still occur this year, 34% believe it will occur next year, 26% believe it will happen in 2019 and a quarter of respondents think it will begin … More When will the next US recession occur?
Since beginning the Absolute Return Strategy, every year has posed a number of risks to the viability of the model. The main risk is the possible correlation of different asset classes within a single market, since the assets I am using for this model are the QQQ and TLT exchange traded funds, which focus on the … More Ignoring the Noise
A goal of any wise strategist is to pick assets that won’t under-perform for the foreseeable future. Interesting choice of words, don’t you think? In the search for assets to add to a portfolio, one finds that in a highly correlated world, it is best to identify the possible laggards and discard them from the pool … More 2016 Model Strategy Review
This post is focused on my country of Panama. Much has happened since my last post in September. In October I was asked to help with certain aspects of the organization and logistics of two important global conferences being held in Panama, the World Social Security Forum (November 14-18) and the International Anti-Corruption Conference (December … More Sowing Seeds of Populism in Panama
Last Friday was without a doubt one of the more unnerving days of the past few months. Pretty much every indice of every asset class was taken to the woodshed for the week, which should not have been a surprise. S&P 500 -2.39%, UST 30yr -1.55%, Euronext 100 -1.42%, Nasdaq Comp -2.36%, Russell 1000 -2.41%, … More Consistency In Following Your Model
I will be the first to say that rules, if not meant to be broken, were made to be bent. The grand central bank policy experiment of ZIRP and NIRP is effectively a bending of economic theory that, other than supporting asset prices, hasn’t provided the inflation boost they were projected to have. For … More What Happens to Absolute Return When Rates Rise
Many of us chart watchers keep constant vigil on the activity of different indicators, looking for signs that help us to make better investment, or disinvestment, decisions. Some indicators are very arcane, the implications of which escape the understanding of many everyday savers. For much of the last 2 years, analysts and investment advisors (yours truly included) have been justifiably … More Fat Lady Not Singing…Yet
The Federal Reserve released the minutes from the July 26-27 meeting. The market was waiting on baited breath for something, anything to cause a ruckus. The VIX Index, or Fear Index, was up 1.07 at one point, to 13.71. After the release of the minutes though, it crumpled down to 12.19. Most of you are … More The Fed and the VIX
